Temporal Trends and Meteorological Drought Characteristics of Precipitation in Zanjan Province, Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Agricultural Engineering Research Institute (AERI); Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO); Karaj, Iran

2 Zanjan Regional Water Company

Abstract
Precipitation is a key climatic variable with high spatiotemporal variability and its changes affect water availability and agriculture, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aims to analyze precipitation trends and meteorological drought in Zanjan Province, Iran, over a 22-year period (2001-2023). Precipitation trends were examined at monthly and annual scales using non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman tests, along with the Theil-Sen slope estimator, across eight counties. Drought was evaluated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The results indicated that annual trends were not significant at any station, while significant monthly trends were observed in June (Zanjan), September (Abhar) and March (Abbar). Precipitation followed a spring-concentrated pattern, with 37% of annual rainfall occurring in spring. The average annual precipitation was 283 mm, with Qeydar recording the highest (393 mm) and Abbar the lowest (254 mm). Light rainfall events (≤1 mm) were most frequent, with Qeydar having the highest number of rainy days (102) and Garmab the lowest (67). SPI analysis revealed normal conditions during approximately 60% of the study period; however, recent years (2021-2023) exhibited mild to extreme drought across most stations. SPEI analysis indicated that moderate drought dominated the one-year scale (36%) and extreme drought prevailed on the ten-year scale (46%). Severe to extreme conditions concentrated in northern, eastern and southeastern areas. The findings indicate repeated moisture deficits in Zanjan Province during the study period. This study provides insights for agricultural planners to develop adaptive strategies for mitigating drought impacts.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 28 September 2026

  • Receive Date 27 August 2026
  • Revise Date 19 September 2026
  • Accept Date 28 September 2026