Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Drought simulation of Kermanshah plain using statistical downscaling model

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

fatemeh nasrnia 1
maryam ehsani 2

1 agricultural economic, shiraz university

2 shiraz university

https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.10188.1177
Abstract
Predicting the effects of climate change on rainfall and drought in the coming years is of great importance in planning and policy-making in the agricultural sector and water resources management, and implementing measures to reduce the negative effects of drought. In this study, the results of rainfall forecasting over the 40-year period 2021-2060 were downscaled using the outputs of the HadGEM3-GC31, MRI-ESM2-0, and ACCESS-ESM1-5 general circulation models using the LARS-WG8 statistical downscaling method under three scenarios: pessimistic, continuation of the current trend, and optimistic. After selecting the appropriate general circulation model, the annual SPI drought index was used to estimate the probability of drought occurrence at the stations under study. The results showed that the rainfall trend in most stations and scenarios was decreasing, and this will lead to an intensification of drought in the coming years; In addition to the numerous adverse socio-economic effects, this will also have a negative impact on the region's agricultural performance and future cropping patterns.

Keywords

Drought management
rainfall
climate change
general circulation models
Subjects
Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 December 2025

  • Receive Date 11 October 2025
  • Revise Date 22 December 2025
  • Accept Date 22 December 2025

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