Using new technologies to study the effects of climate change on valuable species of medicinal plant in Mazandaran Province

Jafari Sayadi, Fatemeh; Miri, Seyedeh Azamat

doi:10.22077/jdcr.2026.11151.1220

Using new technologies to study the effects of climate change on valuable species of medicinal plant in Mazandaran Province

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Fatemeh Jafari Sayadi ¹

Seyedeh Azamat Miri ²

¹ Water engineering group, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran

² Horticulture Sciences and Engineering department,- Agricultural fuculaty- Zanjan University

10.22077/jdcr.2026.11151.1220

Abstract

Industrialization of societies has led to an increase in fossil fuel consumption, which has led to greenhouse gas emissions, an increase in global average temperature, and changes in climate metrics. Climate change shifts the distribution pattern and species richness of many plant groups. In the present study, an attempt has been made to first examine the trend of changes in climate parameters at Mazandaran province. Then, using the time series of the NDVI and long-term temperature and precipitation data in the past and future, the status of vegetation cover in the province's rangelands was evaluated using the random forest algorithm, and after determining the pattern of changes, the status of rangelands as the main habitat of medicinal plants in the future was predicted. According to the results, the average rate of change in minimum, maximum temperature, and precipitation in the optimistic scenario was 1.84, 0.29, and 1.39 mm, and in the pessimistic scenario was 2.29, 0.28, and 0.8 mm. A study of the status of the habitat in the near future shows that some of the habitats with high and good desirability were transferred to the category with middle desirability. The overall result of with increasing temperature, soil moisture decreases, and these conditions can limit the distribution, growth and development of plant species and reduce the desirability of habitats.

Keywords

Bioclimatic variable

optimistic scenario

pessimistic scenario

rangeland desirability

Subjects