Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Mapping concurrent spatiotemporal trends of drought and dust across Iran using long-term satellite and climate data

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Masoud Soleimani 1
Ai Darvishi Boloorani 1
Najmeh Neysani Samany 1
Mohammad Reza Ghayamghamian 2
Ali Al-Hemoud 3

1 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Risk Management Research Center, Tehran, Iran

3 Environment and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait City, Kuwait

10.22077/jdcr.2026.12012.1281
Abstract
Drought and dust are major environmental hazards in Iran, yet their long-term spatial concurrence remains poorly characterized. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and concurrent trends of drought and dust occurrence across Iran during 2000–2024 using daily MODIS MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) and monthly TerraClimate Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data. Long-term trends in dust frequency and drought conditions were assessed using Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall test. Dust occurrence showed strong spatial heterogeneity but predominantly increasing trends, particularly across central, eastern, and northeastern Iran. Drought conditions were similarly heterogeneous, with increasing trends concentrated mainly in eastern and southeastern regions. Integrated analysis revealed that concurrent increases in drought conditions and dust events covered 17% of Iran, while increasing drought with non-significant dust trends formed the largest class (24%). Concurrent decreases were negligible (<1%). These findings highlight substantial regional differences in drought–dust dynamics and demonstrate the value of an integrated trend-based framework for identifying areas where drought and dust trends occur concurrently under climate change.

Keywords

Climate Change
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
Trend Analysis
Dust Frequency
Subjects
Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 08 September 2026

  • Receive Date 02 September 2026
  • Revise Date 08 September 2026
  • Accept Date 08 September 2026

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