Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• Vahid Kalantar ¹
• Seyed Habibollah Mosavi ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran.

² Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran

Abstract

Climate change, as one of the major challenges of the present century, has substantially affected the sustainability of agricultural production—particularly in semi-arid regions—through declining precipitation, rising temperatures, and the increasing frequency of extreme events. In this context, safflower, as a low-water-demand medicinal crop with high tolerance to climatic stresses, exhibits considerable potential for adaptation to future climatic conditions.This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on crop yields and to examine the economic adaptation potential of safflower as a drought-tolerant crop in the Hamedan–Bahar Plain. To this end, future changes in precipitation, temperature, and ET0 were projected under three climate scenarios SSPs, and their effects on crop performance and regional cropping patterns were simulated using a PMP model. Baseline data for the 2022–2023 cropping year were collected through farm-level questionnaires and supplementary information obtained from relevant institutions. Climate projections indicated that Hamedan–Bahar Plain will experience decreasing precipitation and increasing min&max-temperatures across all scenarios, leading to yield reductions for most conventional crops. In contrast, safflower responded favorably under all scenarios, with yield increases ranging from 4-7%. Economic analysis further revealed that this yield improvement could support an expansion of approximately 189h in safflower cultivation and generate more than 9.02billion-tomans in additional net agricultural profit. Accordingly, expanding safflower cultivation under climate stress conditions represents a climate-smart and economically viable strategy that can enhance water productivity, increase farmers’ income, and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of agricultural-systems in the study area, as well as in other regions with similar agro-climatic characteristics.

Keywords

• Adaptation
• Hamedan-Bahar Plain
• Positive Mathematical Programming
• Productivity
• Sustainable Agriculture

Main Subjects

• Climate change