Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Assessing the security implications of climate change and drought in the Karun and Zohreh- Jarahi watersheds

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

sayed Abdoolmanan daneshi 1
alireza ghazizadeh 2
alireza rashidi 3

1 PHD Student

2 Faculty Member, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology

3 Master’s Student

https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.10095.1171
Abstract
This quantitative-survey study aimed to assess the security consequences of climate change and drought in the Karun and Zohreh Jarahi watersheds, and was conducted with a sample of 226 experts and managers in the water and security sectors. The data were analyzed using a researcher-made questionnaire and advanced statistical techniques including exploratory factor analysis, correlation, and structural equation modeling. The research findings identified three key dimensions of the water crisis: socio-legal justice (factor loading 0.87), political governance (0.79), and bio-economic resilience (0.72), which explain a total of 71% of the variance. The results of Pearson correlation (0.47 to 0.72) and structural equation modeling (CFI=0.93) confirmed the direct impact of climate change on the five dimensions of the water crisis and the ground-breaking role of the political index (β=0.52-0.62).The findings of this study indicate that addressing the security implications of climate change requires a comprehensive approach focused on reforming water governance and achieving water justice

Keywords

Water crisis
climate change
drought
watersheds
Subjects
Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 December 2025

  • Receive Date 16 September 2025
  • Revise Date 23 December 2025
  • Accept Date 23 December 2025

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