Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 agricultural economic, shiraz university
2 shiraz university
Abstract
Predicting the effects of climate change on rainfall and drought in the coming years is of great importance in planning and policy-making in the agricultural sector and water resources management, and implementing measures to reduce the negative effects of drought. In this study, the results of rainfall forecasting over the 40-year period 2021-2060 were downscaled using the outputs of the HadGEM3-GC31, MRI-ESM2-0, and ACCESS-ESM1-5 general circulation models using the LARS-WG8 statistical downscaling method under three scenarios: pessimistic, continuation of the current trend, and optimistic. After selecting the appropriate general circulation model, the annual SPI drought index was used to estimate the probability of drought occurrence at the stations under study. The results showed that the rainfall trend in most stations and scenarios was decreasing, and this will lead to an intensification of drought in the coming years; In addition to the numerous adverse socio-economic effects, this will also have a negative impact on the region's agricultural performance and future cropping patterns.
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