Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Graduated from the PhD program in Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
2 Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3 Research Assistant Professor and Master of Science in Technical and Engineering Research Department, Technical and Engineering Department, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Gorgan, Iran,
4 Department of Water Engineering, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran,
Abstract
This study aimed to assess the resilience of a native rice cultivar (Tarom Damsiah) to climate change in Golestan Province. Field data were collected during the 1400 crop year and used to calibrate and validate the CERES-Rice model. Baseline climate data (1990–2020) were extracted from the Minodasht synoptic station and projected using the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model under three emission scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for future periods (2031–2090). The calibration results showed that the CERES-Rice model has a high ability to simulate phenological stages, biomass growth and grain yield (Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) <10 and Wilmot's Agreement Index (d) >0.9). (Analysis of yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes showed that increasing temperature, especially at the grain filling stage, causes a significant change in paddy yield (in the optimistic and pessimistic cases, between +18.6 and -80.7 percent compared to the yield in the base period, respectively); so that in the SSP585 scenario, a sharp decrease in yield and an increase in water requirement were observed. Evaluation of physical resilience indices showed that in the optimistic SSP126 scenario, the cropping system is able to maintain relative productivity, but in the pessimistic SSP585 scenario, resilience is reduced and yield fluctuations increase. The use of strategies such as changing the planting date and stocking density showed, Planting on May 15 or June 25 had significantly higher yields and lower yield fluctuations than late planting. These results indicate that the adaptive approach can play an important role in the country's food security.
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