Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

A New Approach to Flood Risk Assessment: Integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Sensitivity Analysis in the World Heritage Sites of Shushtar Historical City

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Saeid amanpour
mahmud abiyat

Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.10477.1189
Abstract
Flooding, as a severe hydrological consequence of climate change, is a recurrent and destructive threat to UNESCO World Heritage sites such as the historical city of Shushtar. Climate change and urban development have intensified the risk of recurrent floods in this region. The study’s objective is to provide a risk assessment framework to enhance resilience and support adaptation strategies against these climate hazards.



In this research, a framework based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), utilizing 15 independent indicators, was integrated within a GIS environment to identify Flood Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk Zones. Results indicate that more than 32% of the region’s area is at a high or very high-risk level. The model’s accuracy and reliability were confirmed with an accuracy exceeding 90%. Sensitivity analyses further highlight the critical role of the indicators. The validity of this model provides valuable insights for decision-makers to strengthen sustainable climate risk management strategies and protect cultural heritage against the impacts of climate change.

Keywords

Flood
UNESCO World Heritage
MCDM-AHP
Flood Resilience
Shushtar
Subjects
Journal of Drought and Climate change Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 06 December 2025

  • Receive Date 15 November 2025
  • Revise Date 05 December 2025
  • Accept Date 05 December 2025

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