Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 2. PhD student of water resources engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
Abstract
Aridity stands as significant and impactful consequence of climate change. Precise monitoring and assessment of variations in aridity exposure are crucial for helping planners and policymakers formulate effective management strategies to mitigate adverse effects and adapt to evolving conditions. Therefore, this study has been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on aridity in Iran by examining the population exposed to varying intensities of aridity under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The findings from the base period reveal that the climatic outputs derived from the integration of climate models in the CMIP6 demonstrate a high level of efficiency in simulating changes in precipitation, as well as average and maximum temperatures across the country. Additionally, an analysis of the climatic conditions during the base period shows that approximately 90% of the studied stations fall within semi-arid to very arid conditions, according to both aridity indices. Furthermore, the examination of climate change impacts on aridity under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the period between 2025 and 2036 suggests a trend towards drier conditions in provinces located in the northwest, west, and southwest. Similarly, the results under the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicate the emergence of extremely dry conditions across a substantial portion of the country, particularly in central, southern, eastern, and northwestern regions. The analysis of populations affected by varying aridity intensities reveals an increase in the number of people living under dry and semi-arid climatic conditions in the southern, eastern, western, and central regions of the country compared to the baseline.
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