Document Type : Original Article
Author
Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This study uses a three-level analytical approach to investigate temperature changes in Iran and their implications for the agricultural sector. At the first level, a quantitative analysis of temperature changes was conducted using CRU network data. The general causes of temperature increase were analyzed qualitatively at the second level. At the third level, the study examined opportunities and threats posed by rising temperatures to agriculture through a qualitative approach. Results indicate a significant increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures over the past 30 years compared to the standard climatic period, with the increase in minimum temperatures being more pronounced. This temperature rise presents opportunities for expanding agricultural production, diversifying crops, and enabling farmers in colder regions to cultivate heat-tolerant crops. However, it also poses threats such as increased evaporation, higher evapotranspiration, a rise in harmful insect populations, and elevated greenhouse cooling costs. These findings provide valuable insights for developing adaptive strategies to enhance agricultural resilience in the face of climate change
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