نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی ،اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
تغییرات دما می‌تواند به دو صورت طبیعی یا ناشی از فعالیت‌های انسانی )مانند انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای( رخ دهد. با توجه به اهمیت تغییرات دمایی و ارتباط آن با تغییرات اقلیمی، این مقاله با بهره گیری از روش‌شناسی مبتنی بر روش تحلیلی و توصیفی سه سطحی در سطح اول تغییرات دمایی در پهنه کشور با بهره گیری از داده های شبکه ای پایگاه CRU و اتکا بر روش تحقیق کمی ، در سطح دوم واکاوی علل کلی افزایش دما در کشور با اتکا به روش تحقیق کیفی و در آخرین سطح، واکاوی فرصت‌ها وتهدیدهای ناشی از افزایش دما در بخش کشاورزی با اتکا به روش تحقیق کیفی را بررسی کرده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که افزایش دما در متوسط حداقل دما و حداکثر دما در دوره سی ساله اخیر نسبت به دوره استاندارد اقلیمی انتخابی کاملا مشهود بوده است. افزایش دما در حداقل دما نسبت به دوره استاندارد اقلیمی انتخابی در عین اینکه افزایشی بوده است، نسبت به حداکثر دما نیز بسیار بیشتر بوده است. این موضوع، فرصتی را برای گسترش تولید محصولات کشاورزی و افزایش تنوع کاشت فراهم می‌کند. همچنین افزایش دما می‌تواند به کشاورزان مناطق سردسیر این امکان را بدهد که الگوی کاشت خود را تغییر داده و محصولات گرمادوست را نیز کشت نمایند. تهدیداتی همچون افزایش تبخیر، افزایش تبخیر-تعرق و ایجاد شرایط برای تکثیر و ازدیاد جمعیت حشرات مضر و افزایش هزینه های سرمایشی گلخانه ها و موارد دیگری را به همراه داشته باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
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