نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه بزرگمهر قائنات، قاین، ایران
2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف بررسی روند خشکسالی هواشناسی در شهر قاین واقع در استان خراسان جنوبی طی یک دوره ۳۷ ساله (سال آبی 1988 تا 2024) انجام شده است. بدینمنظوراز دادههای سالانه بارش و دما و دو شاخص درصد نرمال بارش (PNPI ) و بارش استاندارد شده (SPI ) برای تحلیل خشکسالی منطقه استفاده گردید. بر اساس نتایج، میانگین بارش سالانه برابر با ۱۶۱.۳۰ میلیمتر منطقه (با ضریب تغییرات ۳۷%)، بیانگر نوسانات شدید در بارندگی سالیانه و وقوع سالهایی با بارشهای غیرعادی بالا یا پایین است. بررسی روند تغییرات بارندگی سالانه با استفاده از روشهای رگرسیون خطی، آزمون من–کندال و شیبسن، روند معناداری در مقادیر بارش نشان نمیدهد. اما دمای میانگین سالانه با نرخ افزایش (°C)⁄year 0.078، روندی افزایشی و معنادار دارد. بر اساس PNPI و SPI به ترتیب حدود 41% و 16% از سالها ( پس از سال 1999) در وضعیت خشکسالی قرار داشت.
کلیدواژهها
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