مجله پژوهش های خشکسالی و تغییراقلیم

Long-term assessment of cold stress in Tabriz: Temporal analysis of sensible temperature and heat loss indices

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

Mahdi Shojaei 1
Alireza Entezari 2
Mohammad Baaghideh 2

1 Graduated from the Department of Climatology and Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

2 Department of Climatology and Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2026.11285.1233
چکیده
The wind chill phenomenon plays a significant role in thermal comfort and cold stress in cold climates. This study evaluates the long-term evolution of cold stress in Tabriz by analyzing daily mean temperature and wind speed data from the Tabriz synoptic station over a 63-year period (1961–2023). The Wind Chill Equivalent Temperature (WCET) and Heat Loss indices were calculated using standard meteorological models. Trend and mutation analyses were conducted utilizing the Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) analysis, following autocorrelation pre-processing. The results indicate a gradual warming tendency in annual mean WCET, alongside a general, though statistically non-significant, decreasing tendency in the persistence of prolonged cold spells. SMK analysis suggests a structural shift around 1975, after which the duration of cold spells exhibited a downward trajectory characterized by strong interannual and temporal fluctuations. While the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events have diminished compared to the 1960s and 1970s, the potential for severe cold waves remains. The findings provide empirical data that can inform regional climate change adaptation strategies and urban infrastructure planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Wind Chill
Wind Chill Equivalent Temperature (WCET)
Heat Loss
Climate Change
Tabriz
موضوعات
مجله پژوهش های خشکسالی و تغییراقلیم

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 25 خرداد 1405

  • تاریخ دریافت 18 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 19 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 25 خرداد 1405

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