نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی مناب عطبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.
2 استاد گروه مهندسی مناب عطبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه آمار، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف مدلسازی خشکسالیها تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم آینده و با استفاده از توابع کاپولا انجام شد. در این مطالعه، از دادههای تاریخی (2020-۱۹۸۹) و خروجیهای ریزمقیاسشده مدل اقلیمی CanESM5 تحت سناریوهای SSP126، SSP370 و SSP585 در دوره آینده (2040-۲۰۲۱) استفاده گردید. رواناب حوضه با مدل IHACRES شبیهسازی شد. بارش و رواناب در مقیاس 12 ماهه محاسبه و سپس با کمک توابع کاپولا، شاخص ترکیبی خشکسالی هیدرو-هواشناسی توسعه داده شد و ویژگیهای خشکسالی و روند آن در دورههای تاریخی و آینده مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد الگوی خشکسالی در آینده بهسمت رویدادهای کوتاهمدتتر اما پرشمارتر تغییر میکند. اگرچه میانگین تداوم و شدت در برخی سناریوها کاهش یافت، اما «بزرگی» کلی خشکسالی و فراوانی خشکسالیهای شدید در تمامی سناریوها افزایشی قابل توجه خواهد داشت. این چارچوب میتواند مبنای علمی مناسبی برای تدوین سیستمهای هشدار زودهنگام و مدیریت پایدار منابع آب درحوضه ها مقابل تغییرات اقلیمی فراهم آورد.
کلیدواژهها
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