نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
استادیار گروه کشاورزی، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف ارائه چارچوبی یکپارچه برای پایش خشکسالی شاخصهای سنجشاز دور VCI از MOD13A2، TCI از MOD11A2، PCI از محصول بارش ماهوارهای، و SMCI از رطوبت خاک را در کنار شاخصهای هواشناسی–هیدرولوژیکی (SPI ، SPEI و PDSI) طی دوره 2000 تا 2022 برای تهران و حومه ادغام میکند. پیشپردازش و استخراج شاخصها در بستر Google Earth Engine انجام با آزمونهای من– کندال و شیب سن، روندها و با ضریب پیرسون تحلیل گردید. نتایج نشان داد شاخصهای مبتنی بر بارش (SPI و PCI) بیشترین توان توضیح تغییرات کوتاهمدت را دارند و با شاخص وضعیت رطوبتی خاک SMCI همبستگی بالایی نشان میدهند؛ در مقابل VCI به نوسانات رطوبتی با وقفه زمانی پاسخ میدهد و TCI رابطهای معکوس و معنادار با شدت خشکسالی در مقیاسهای بلندمدت (PDSI/SPEI) دارد. تابستانها با ترکیب کمبود بارش و تنش حرارتی، بیشترین آسیبپذیری را ثبت کردند و سالهای 2008، 2010 و 2016 دورههای حاد خشکسالی بودند.
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
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