نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری رشته جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، ,واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.
چکیده
هدف : این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل تأثیر مهاجرتهای ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی بر گسترش حاشیهنشینی در کلانشهر مشهد انجام شد.
روش: این مطالعه به روش ترکیبی و با جامعه آماری ۳۸۴ نفر از مهاجران ساکن در سکونتگاههای غیررسمی مشهد (انتخاب شده به روش خوشهای) و ۲۰ مصاحبه نیمهساختاریافته با خبرگان انجام گرفت. دادهها با پرسشنامه محققساخته و مصاحبه گردآوری و با استفاده از تحلیل مسیر، رگرسیون و تحلیل مضمون تحلیل شدند.
یافتهها: یافتههای کمی نشان داد فشارهای اقلیمی (β=0.59) و نابرابری فضایی (β=0.44) تأثیر مستقیم و معناداری بر حاشیهنشینی دارند. همچنین، مهاجرت اقلیمی از طریق کاهش تابآوری (β=-0.32) بهطور غیرمستقیم بر این پدیده مؤثر بود.
نتیجهگیری: نتایج مؤید آن است که مهاجرت اقلیمی در غیاب سیاستهای حمایتی، نه تنها یک پاسخ اضطراری، بلکه عاملی برای بازتولید فقر و نابرابری فضایی است. مدیریت این پدیده نیازمند تدوین سیاستهای فرابخشی، عدالتمحور و برنامهریزی برای افزایش تابآوری در مبدأ و مقصد است.
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
Adalat-Moghadam, M., & Samadi, R. (2019). Examining the consequences of climate change and drought on migration and national security (Case study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Proceedings of the International Conference on the Development of Geography, Tourism and Sustainable Development, Tehran, Iran. [In Persian].R
Ahmadi shapourabadi, M. A. and & Tahmasi, B. (2024). Meta-Analysis on mechanisms and strategies for adaptation to climate change and migration in Iran. Strategic Studies of public policy, 13(49), 34-69. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/sspp.2023.563071.3296
Ali, S., Khan, Z. A., Azhar, M.., & Raheem, I. (2024). Investigating the disproportionate effects of climate change on marginalized groups and the concept of climate justice in policy-making. review of education, administration & law, 7(4), 369-381. https://doi.org/10.47067/real.v7i4.390
Anaraki Mohammadi, A. (2025). Studying the role of environmental crises and climate changes in the immigration of Border Dwellers and National Security. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 3(1), 135-148. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.7957.1073
Arvandi, S. (2024). The effect of climate change on the way of investing in modern irrigation systems. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 2(3), 97-110. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.7834.1071
Barbieri, A. F., Domingues, E., Queiroz, B. L., Ruiz, R. M., Rigotti, J. I., Carvalho, J. A., & Resende, M. F. (2010). Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050. Population and environment, 31(5), 344-370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0105-1
Bharadwaj, R., Chakravarti, D., Karthikeyan, N., Islam, S., & Tanni, U. J. (2025). Exposed and exploited.
Bilali, E., Bassole, H. I., Dambo, L., & Berjan, S. (2020). Climate change and food security. agriculture and forestry, 66, 197-210. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.66.3.16
Bilsborrow, R. (2002) ‘Migration, population change, and the rural environment’. environmental change and security project report, (8), 69-94.
Black, R. (2001). Environmental refugees: myth or reality?.
Castles, S. (2002). Environmental change and forced migration: making sense of the debate (Vol. 70). Geneva: UNHCR. working paper No. 70.
Change, C. (2007). Human Development Report 2007/2008 fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world.
Chorover, T., and & Arriens, J. (2020). Faced with forced relocation, the people of one Philippine city designed Their own climateresilient neighborhood.
Crépeau, F., Nakache, D., Collyer, M., Goetz, N. H., Hansen, A., Modi, R., Nadig, A., Spoljar-Vrzina, S., & Willigen, L. H. M. V. (2006). Forced migration and global processes: a view from forced migration studies: program in migration and refugee studies. Lexington Books.
Dallman, I., & Millock, K. (2012, October). Climate variability and internal migration: a test on Indian inter-state migration. In ENMRDTE Pre-conference on Migration and Environment (Vol. 17).
Docherty, B., & Giannini, T. (2009). Confronting a rising tide: a proposal for a convention on climate change refugees. Harv. Envtl. L. Rev., 33, 349-403.
DRC (Danish Refugee Council). (2019). Seeing the future? The mixed migration foresight project.
Ebrahimzadeh, I. and & esmaeil negad, M. (2017). The future challenge of climatic refugees regional developments case study: South Khorasan. Geography and Development, 15(48), 1-18 [In Persian]. https://doi.org/ 10.22111/gdij.2017.3347
Edalat Moghadam, M. (2022). Building climate-resilient communities; say no to migration. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 12(4), 98-80. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.24767220.1401.12.4.5.6
El-Hinnawi, E (1985), Environmental refugees, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), New York.
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE FOUNDATION–EJF. (2017). Beyond borders: our changing climate–its role in conflict and displacement.
Farhadikhah, H. , Hataminejad, H. and Shahi, A. (2019). Investigating the Pattern of Residence of Immigrants and its Relationship with Slum area and urban poverty in metropolises Case Study: Mashhad Metropolis. Urban Economics, 4(1), 25-40. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22108/ue.2020.115485.1115
Greenwood, M. J. (1969). An analysis of the determinants of geographic labor mobility in the United States. The review of Economics and Statistics, 189-194.
Hammer, T., Unruh, J. D., Krol, M. S., & Kliot, N. (2004). Desertification and migration. Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration. Kluwer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-2877-9
Harvey, D. (2010). Social justice and the city (Vol. 1). University of Georgia press.
Hataminezhad, H., Hosseini, A., mansouri etminan, A., & Bayrami, M. (2025). Investigating the effects of climate change on the livability of cities: A case study of Mashhad City. Urban Structure and Function Studies, 12(3), 59-84. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22080/usfs.2025.27655.2464
Heydari, N. (2019). Visions and approaches for adapting to climate change, from agricultural water management and food security aspects. Water Management in Agriculture, 6(1), 23-36. [In Persian]
Hugman, R. (2005). Embodying old age. In Embodied Geographies (pp. 207-222). Routledge.
Hugo, G. (1996). Environmental concerns and international migration. International migration review, 30(1), 105-131.
IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) (2017) ‘Internal Displacement by Country Database’.Geneva: IDMC.
International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2008). Migration and climate change. Geneva: international organization for migration.
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
Iramvand, R., & Goodarzi, M. (2014). Investigating the mutual effects of urbanization and climate change on each other. Proceedings of the 2nd National Conference on Desert Studies with an Approach to the Management of Arid and Desert Areas, Semnan, Iran. [In Persian]
Iranian Urban Regeneration Company. (2021). [In Persian].
Janparvar, M., Salehabadi, R., & Zargari, M. (2017). Migration crisis caused by short-term droughts in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.15(52), 183-199. [In Persian].
Kang, K. W. (2008, February). Climate change, migration and human rights. in speech delivered at the Conference on Climate Change and Migration: Addressing Vulnerabilities and Harnessing Opportunities, Geneva (Vol. 19).
Khalil, S. (2016). Impacts of climate change on marginalized communities, tourism and their sustainable livelihood in a developing economy. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 201, 91-101. https://doi.org/10.2495/ST160081
Kliot, N. (2004). Environmentally induced population movements: their complex sources and consequences. Environmental change and its implications for population migration. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 69-99. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-2877-9_4
KN, Y., TM, M. U., S, K., Sachdeva, S., Thakur, S., & S, A. K. (2023). Lignocellulosic biorefinery technologies: a perception into recent advances in biomass fractionation, biorefineries, economic hurdles and market outlook. Fermentation, 9(3), 238. https://doi.org/10.3390/fermentation9030238
Ko, C. Y., Ku, K. L., Yang, S. R., Lin, T. Y., Peng, S., Peng, Y. S., Cheng, M. H., & Chu, I. M. (2016). In vitro and in vivo co-culture of chondrocytes and bone marrow stem cells in photocrosslinked PCL-PEG-PCL hydrogels enhances cartilage formation. Journal of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, 10(10), 485–496. https://doi.org/10.1002/term.1846
Kolmannskog, V. (2008). Future floods of refugees: A comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration. Oslo: Norwegian Refugee Council.
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Lilleør, H. B., & Van den Broeck, K. (2011). Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. Global environmental change, 21, S70-S81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.002
Manafollian, S., Zahra Sadat, S., Zarrabadi, S., & Behzadsfar, M. (2019). Assessing the factors influencing climate resilience (Case study: Tabriz City). New Attitudes in Human geography, 12(1), 509–525. [In Persian] https://doi.org/20.1001.1.66972251.1398.12.1.27.5
Mashhad Municipality. (2016). [In Persian].
Mohamadi dehcheshme, M., Ghaedi, S. and & shanbehpoor, F. (2023). Modeling the structural consequences of climate change in the city of Ahvaz using the System Dynamic model. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 31(124), 87-101. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22131/sepehr.2023.551734.2863
Mosello, B., Matoso, M., Cummings, C., & Doczi, J. (2016). Sanitation under stress.
Mossafa, N. and & Hosseinzadeh Hashemi, H. (2016). Legal protection for climate change refugees. International Studies Journal (ISJ), 13(1), 1-40.
Mueller, V., Gray, C., & Kosec, K. (2014). Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature climate change, 4(3), 182-185. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103
Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 357(1420), 609-613. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2001.0953
Naderi, M., HasanAbadi, D., Yousefi, A. and & Vali Shariat Panahi, M. (2025). Political geopolitical analysis of the linkage between climate change, migration, and social insecurity in Khuzestan province. Researches in Earth Sciences, 16(1), 189-203. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.48308/esrj.2025.237098.1237
Naserzadeh, M. H., & Ahmadi, E. (2012). Evaluating the performance of meteorological drought indices in assessing and zoning drought in Qazvin Province. Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 12(27), 141–162. [In Persian]
Ntontis, E., Drury, J., Amlôt, R., Rubin, G. J., & Williams, R. (2020). What lies beyond social capital? The role of social psychology in building community resilience to climate change. Traumatology, 26(3), 253–265. https://doi.org/10.1037/trm0000221
Piguet, E. (2008). New issues in refugee research. UNHCR Research Paper (2018-153). Recuperado de https://ww w. unhcr. org/research/working/47a316182/climate-change-forced-migration-etienne-piguet. html.
Ramezani Etedali, H. and Koohi, S. (2025). Investigating the impact of climate change on the aridity in Iran with Population Exposure Approach. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 3(1), 17-38. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.8258.1079
Rana, M. M. P., & Piracha, A. (2020). Supplying water to the urban poor: government's roles and challenges of participatory water governance. Cities, 106, 102881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102881
Rathore, M. S., Sharma, L., Singh, N. P., Opitz-Stapleton, S., Chopde, S., Singh, D., ... & Moench, M. (2011). The uncomfortable nexus: Water, urbanization and climate change in Jaipur, India. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International and Centre for Environmental and Development Studies, Boulder, CO and Jaipur, India.
Samadi, R. (2022). Climate migration dilemma; migration as an adaptation or maladaptation strategy. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 12(4), 79-63. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.24767220.1401.12.4.6.7
Satorras, M., Lara, Á., and & Ruiz-Mallén, I. (2020). Booklet of urban resilience community initiatives in Seville and Barcelona: Civil Society against the Effects of Climate Change.
Sedhai, A. (2021). Early warning system saving lives during Nepal ’s monsoon.
Shen, J. (2013). Increasing internal migration in China from 1985 to 2005: Institutional versus economic drivers. Habitat International, 39, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.10.004
Sovacool, B. K. (2014). Environmental issues, climate changes, and energy security in developing Asia. Asian development bank economics working paper series, (399), 17-14. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2479725
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2009). UNISDR terminology on disaster risk reduction.
Vogt, W. (1948). Road to Survival. New York: William Sloane Associates. Germane, P, 6.
Wirsching, S., Emberson, P. and & Keber, G. (2013), Climate refuge, Word Council of Charvhes Publication, Switzerland.
)