نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بیرجند، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب و عضو گروه پژوهشی خشکسالی و تغییر اقلیم، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.
3 سازمان جهاد کشاورزی استان خراسان جنوبی
چکیده
خشکسالی پدیده طبیعی مستمر اقلیمی است که به طور معمول در تمامی نقاط دنیا رخ میدهد ولی ویژگیها، نوع و شدت آنها از یک منطقه به منطقه دیگر متفاوت است. پژوهش حاضر، با هدف بررسی شدت و مدت خشکسالی در 2 شهرسنان فردوس و طبس استان خراسان جنوبی انجام شده است. در این مطالعه سری زمانی بارش روزانه برای ایستگاههای انتخابی برای دوره آماری 25 ساله ( 1990 تا 2014 ) جمعآوری گردید و به بررسی شاخص خشکسالی بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) در دو ایستگاه مورد مطالعه با استفاده از دو مدل GCM ، IPSL و MPI ارائه شده در CMIP6 پرداخته شده است. در این تحقیق از سناریوی SSP2-4.5 برای تخمین SPI در دوره 2059-2030 و برای پیشبینی دادههای هواشناسی از روش ریزمقیاسنمایی BCSD استفاده شده است. نتایج بدست آمده حاکی از این است که روند کلی SPI برای هر دو مدل نشاندهنده نوسانات قابل توجه بین مقادیر مثبت
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
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