نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد، آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بی نالمللی امام خمینی )ره(، قزوین، ایران.
2 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
چکیده
چکیده:
تغییرات اقلیمی، بهویژه از طریق ایجاد تنش گرمایی، تهدیدی جدی برای تولیدات کشاورزی در استان قزوین، یکی از قطبهای کلیدی کشاورزی ایران، بهشمار میرود. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل الگوهای زمانی تنش گرمایی (شامل: فراوانی، شدت و مدت وقوع) وارد بر محصولات راهبردی گندم، ذرت و جو و ارزیابی تأثیر آن بر عملکرد این محصولات تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 انجام شده است. برای این منظور، از دادههای تاریخی (1997–2014) ایستگاه سینوپتیک قزوین و پیشبینیهای پنج مدل اقلیمی جهانی (CNRM-CM6-1، CanESM5، GFDL-ESM4، HadGEM3-GC31-LL، MIROC6) با رویکرد مدل تلفیقی بهینهشده استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی دورههای آتی و بهویژه تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5، فراوانی تنش گرمایی بهطور قابلتوجهی افزایش مییابد. بهطوریکه ذرت با نزدیک به 100 درصد فراوانی وقوع تنش طی دوره کشت تا سال 2099 آسیبپذیرترین محصول بهشمار میرود. براساس نتایج شدت و مدت تنش نیز تحت تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی افزایش یافته و عملکرد محصولات بهطور چشمگیری کاهش یافته است (گندم از 20/4 به 00/3 تن در هکتار، جو از 80/3 به 18/2 تن در هکتار و ذرت از 9/37 به 1/33 تن در هکتار). این نتایج ضرورت اتخاذ راهبردهای سازگاری نظیر تغییر زمان کاشت و توسعه ارقام مقاوم به گرما را در استان قزوین برجسته میکند. برنامهریزی دقیق برای مدیریت منابع آب و توسعه زیرساختها برای تقویت تابآوری کشاورزی نیز امری ضروری است، زیرا عدم توجه به این موارد میتواند امنیت غذایی و ثبات اقتصادی منطقه را به خطر اندازد.
کلیدواژهها
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