ارزیابی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تنش گرمایی وارد بر محصولات راهبردی کشاورزی در استان قزوین

رمضانی اعتدالی, هادی; کوهی, سکینه

doi:10.22077/jdcr.2025.9739.1157

ارزیابی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تنش گرمایی وارد بر محصولات راهبردی کشاورزی در استان قزوین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

هادی رمضانی اعتدالی ¹

سکینه کوهی ²

¹ استاد، آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بی نالمللی امام خمینی )ره(، قزوین، ایران.

² گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.9739.1157

چکیده

چکیده:

تغییرات اقلیمی، به‌ویژه از طریق ایجاد تنش گرمایی، تهدیدی جدی برای تولیدات کشاورزی در استان قزوین، یکی از قطب‌های کلیدی کشاورزی ایران، به‌شمار می‌رود. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل الگوهای زمانی تنش گرمایی (شامل: فراوانی، شدت و مدت وقوع) وارد بر محصولات راهبردی گندم، ذرت و جو و ارزیابی تأثیر آن بر عملکرد این محصولات تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 انجام شده است. برای این منظور، از داده‌های تاریخی (1997–2014) ایستگاه سینوپتیک قزوین و پیش‌بینی‌های پنج مدل اقلیمی جهانی (CNRM-CM6-1، CanESM5، GFDL-ESM4، HadGEM3-GC31-LL، MIROC6) با رویکرد مدل تلفیقی بهینه‌شده استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی دوره‌های آتی و به‌ویژه تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5، فراوانی تنش گرمایی به‌طور قابل‌توجهی افزایش می‌یابد. به‌طوری‌که ذرت با نزدیک به 100 درصد فراوانی وقوع تنش طی دوره کشت تا سال 2099 آسیب‌پذیرترین محصول به‌شمار می‌رود. براساس نتایج شدت و مدت تنش نیز تحت تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی افزایش یافته و عملکرد محصولات به‌طور چشمگیری کاهش یافته است (گندم از 20/4 به 00/3 تن در هکتار، جو از 80/3 به 18/2 تن در هکتار و ذرت از 9/37 به 1/33 تن در هکتار). این نتایج ضرورت اتخاذ راهبردهای سازگاری نظیر تغییر زمان کاشت و توسعه ارقام مقاوم به گرما را در استان قزوین برجسته می‌کند. برنامه‌ریزی دقیق برای مدیریت منابع آب و توسعه زیرساخت‌ها برای تقویت تاب‌آوری کشاورزی نیز امری ضروری است، زیرا عدم توجه به این موارد می‌تواند امنیت غذایی و ثبات اقتصادی منطقه را به خطر اندازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تنش گرمایی

عملکرد محصولات

سناریوهای SSP

مدل‌های اقلیمی جهانی

موضوعات

تغییراقلیم

AbbasiAlikamar, R. (2017). Investigation on temperature sensitivity of some species and predicting phonological variation in transition to climatic change. PhD dissertation. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Iran. [In Persian]. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/viewer/b3ceedb6a621214cc47ddae4331e58ed

Aghamir, F., Soufizadeh, S., & Soheili, A. (2021). Simulation of the effect of climate change on phenology and yield of dryland wheat in Kurdistan province. Advanced Environmental Sciences, 19(1), 143–160. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.52547/envs.2021.1020

Alizadeh, A. (2011). Agricultural climate and meteorology. Astan Quds Razavi, Imam Reza University. [In Persian]. http://www.adinehbook.com/product/6005650204/

Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., & Zhu, Y. (2015). Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470

Azizi, K., & Rahimi-Moghaddam, S. (2020). Simulating the risk of heat stress on grain maize production under arid and semi-arid conditions. Environmental Sciences, 18(3), 85–105. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.29252/envs.18.3.85

Bager, E. V. A. (2020). Assesment of effect of terminal heat stress on yield and yield components of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) genotypes in Moghan. MSc dissertation. University of Mohaghegh Ardabili. Iran. [In Persian]. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/viewer/

Bannayan, M., Hoogenboon, G., & Crout, N. M. J. (2004). Photothermal impact on maize performance: a simulation approach. Ecological Modelling, 180(2–3), 277–290. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.04.022

Barnabás, B., Jäger, K., & Fehér, A. (2008). The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals. Plant, Cell & Environment, 31(1), 11–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2007.01727.x

Deihimfard, R., Rahimi-Moghaddam, S., Eyni-Nargeseh, H., & Collins, B. (2023). An optimal combination of sowing date and cultivar could mitigate the impact of simultaneous heat and drought on rainfed wheat in arid regions. European Journal of Agronomy, 147. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.eja.2023.126848

Fahad, S., Bajwa, A., Nazir, U., Anjum, S., Farooq, A., Zohaib, A., Sadia, S., Nasim, W., Adkins, S., Saud, S., Ihsan, M., Alharby, H., Wu, C., Wang, D., & Huang, J. (2017). Crop Production under Drought and Heat Stress: Plant Responses and Management Options. Frontiers in Plant Science, 8(1147). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.01147

Fakhri, M. (2024). Investigating the Condition of Iran's Temperature Changes Compared to the Past Long-Term Climatic Standard Period. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 2(3), 17-32. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.7392.1062

Farooq, M., Bramley, H., Palta, J., Siddique, J. A., & Siddique, K. (2011). Heat stress in wheat during reproductive and grain-filling phases. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, 30(6), 491–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352689.2011.615687.

Haghighati, B. (2024). Evaluation of tolerance to drought in the end of growing season in wheat cultivars and identification of high-yielding genotypes. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.8494.1087

Haji-Rahimi, M., Sharaifi, F., & Asaadi, M. A. (2024). The Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Production and Food Security in Iran-In Persian. Climate Change Research, 5(20), 65–78. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.30488/ccr.2024.472319.1238

Hasanuzzaman, M., Hossain, M. A., da Silva, J. A. T., & Fujita, M. (2012). Plant Response and Tolerance to Abiotic Oxidative Stress: Antioxidant Defense Is a Key Factor. In Crop Stress and its Management: Perspectives and Strategies. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2220-0_8

Hatfield, J. L., & Prueger, J. H. (2015). Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes, 10, 4–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001.

Ingvordsen, C. H., Backes, G., & Lyngkjær, M. F. (2015). Genome-wide association study of production and stability traits in barley cultivated under future climate scenarios. Molecular Breeding, 35(84). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11032-015-0283-8

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.

Khalili, A., Bazrafshan, J., & Cheraghalizadeh, M. (2022). A Comparative study on climate maps of Iran in extended de Martonne classification and application of the method for world climate zoning. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 10(1), 3–16. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22125/agmj.2022.156309

King, A. B., Shellie, K. C., Tarkalson, D. D., Levin, A. D., Sharma, V., & Bjorneberg, D. L. (2020). Data-Driven Models for Canopy Temperature-Based Irrigation Scheduling. Transactions of the ASABE, 63(5), 1579–1592. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.13901

Koohi, S., & Ramezani Etedali, H. (2022). Future meteorological drought conditions of southwestern Iran based on the NEX-GDDP climate dataset. Journal of Arid Land, 15(4), 377-392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-023-0097-1

Lobell, D., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 29(333), 616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531

Mianabadi, A., Mousavi-Baygi, M., Sanaeinejad, H., & Nezami, A. (2009). Studding and mapping of heat stress affecting on crops in Khorasan Razavi using GIS. Journal of Water and Soil, 23(2), 104–114. https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v0i0.1733

Mohan, S., & Bhaskaran, P. K. (2019). Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region. Climate Dynamics, 53(9–10), 5415–5435. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04874-2

O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., & Solecki, W. (2017). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 169–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., & Lewis, S. C. (2020). Increasing trends in regional heatwaves. Nature Communications, 11(3357). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7

Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M., & Khalili, A. (2013). Spatial changes of extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112(3–4), 409–418. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0741-8.

Rajabalinejad, A., Nozari, N., & Badr, B. (2023). The effect of climate change on agricultural production in Iran. Brazilian Journal of Biology, 83. https://doi.org/10.1590/1519-6984.277383

Rajasivaranjan, T., Anandhi, A., Patel, N. R., Irannezhad, M., Srinivas, C. V., Veluswamy, K., Surendran, U., & Raja, P. (2022). Integrated use of regional weather forecasting and crop modeling for water stress assessment on rice yield. Scientific Reports, 12. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s41598-022-19750-z

Ramezani Etedali, H., Koohi, S., & Partovi, Z. (2023). Evaluation of Ensemble Climate Model development methods based on CMIP5 to investigate the potential of water harvesting from air humidity. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 54(11), 1609–1625. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijswr.2023.364087.669553

Safari, F., Etedali, H. R., Kaviani, A., & Khosravi, L. (2025). Investigating the Trend of Temperature Changes and Evaluating the Relationship Between Temperature with Yield and Biomass (Case Study: Forage Maize in Qazvin). Journal of Water and Soil Science, 28(4). [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.47176/jwss.28.4.50625.

Seif, Z., Etemad, V. and Javanmiri pour, M. (2024). Effect of Drought and Salinity Stress on Chlorophyll and Carotenoid Content in Russian Olive Leaves (Elaeagnus angustifolia L.). Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 2(3), 33-48. [In Persian]. https://doi: 10.22077/jdcr.2024.7645.1069.

Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(37), 15594–15598. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106

Shahbazi, A., Abedini, S., Deihimfard, R., Rahimi-Moghaddam, S., & Noori, O. (2024). Determining the Optimal Flowering Time in Rainfed Wheat Under Simultaneous Heat and Drought Stresses in Some Regions of Iran as Predicted by APSIM-Wheat Model. Environmental Sciences, 22(4), 643–658. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106

Shahvardi, M. (2023). Seed pretreatment method with Benamide and Algabon biostimulants on improving heat stress during germination and growth of heat-loving (canola and green beans) and cold-loving (lettuce and barley) plants. MSc dissertation. Shahrekord University. Iran. [In Persian]. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/viewer/a378c79f102ac25f99c8e421c1ab9bbc.

Teixeira, E., Fischer, G., Van Velthuizen, H. T., Walter, C., & Ewert, F. (2013). Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170(206–215). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002.

Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., & Duffy, P. B. (2012). Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3309–3314. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012

Wahid, A., Gelani, S., Ashraf, M., & Foolad, M. R. (2007). Heat tolerance in plants: An overview. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 61(3), 199–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2007.05.011

Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., & Asseng, S. (2017). Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(35), 9326–9333. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114.