نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه کامپیوتر، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
تخمین دقیق بارش نقشی اساسی در پیشبینی آبوهوا، مدیریت منابع آبی و کاهش اثرات بلایای طبیعی ایفا میکند. در سالهای اخیر، روشهای یادگیری ماشین بهعنوان ابزاری توانمند برای بهبود تخمین بارش مطرح شدهاند. در این مقاله، روشهای رگرسیون شبکههای عصبی مصنوعی و رگرسیون ماشین بردار پشتیبان برای نگاشت میزان بارش تخمین زده شده توسط دادههای ERA5به بارشهای سنجش شده در ایستگاههای هواشناسی مورد ارزیابی قرار میگیرد. در این مطالعه، روشهای مختلفی از جمله روشهای آماری و یادگیری ماشین با استفاده از ترکیب ویژگیهای مختلف برای بهبود دقت دادههای ERA5 مورد بررسی قرار میگیرند. ناحیه مورد مطالعه شامل 16 ایستگاه هواشناسی میباشد. نتایج نشان میدهد که روش رگرسیون شبکههای عصبی مصنوعی دقت تخمین بارش را متناسب با تعداد ویژگیهای ورودی افزایش داده و در بهترین حالت منجر به دستیابی به RMSE (mm73/2 برای روزانه)، CC ( 71/0 برای روزانه )، NSE (50/0 برای روزانه ) و NRMSE (05/0 برای روزانه) شد.
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
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