نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
چکیده
خشکسالی یک پدیده طبیعی است که در هر نوع آب وهوایی امکان وقوع آن وجود دارد و آثار زیانبار آن به مراتب گستردهتر و عمیقتر از دیگر بلای طبیعی است. این پدیده طبیعی یکی از مضرترین و از لحاظ اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی و محیط زیستی زیانبارترین بلای طبیعی به شمار میرود. این مطالعه با هدف پیشبینی و تهیه نقشه خطر، شناسایی مناطق حساس به منظور توسعه پایداری که خطرات را کاهش و انعطافپذیری را ارتقا میدهد، انجام شده است. در این مطالعه از لایههای بارندگی، دما، اقلیم، شاخص نرمال شده تفاوت پوشش گیاهی و شاخصهای موفومتری از جمله شاخص خیسی توپوگرافی، شاخص تعادل جرم، شاخص موقعیت جغرافیایی و شاخص پناهگاه بادی به منظور تهیه نقشه پهنهبندی خشکسالی در استان اردبیل از مدل جنگل تصادفی استفاده گردید. تجزیه و تحلیل اهمیت متغیر با استفاده از شاخص جایگشت نشان داد که به ترتیب بارندگی، دما، اقلیم از مهمترین عوامل موثر بر خشکسالی استان اردبیل هستند. بررسی نقشه پهنهبندی حساسیت این استان به خشکسالی با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی فوق نشان داد که حدود 50 درصد از منطقه مورد مطالعه در رده مناطق دارای حساسیت زیاد و بسیار زیاد به رخداد خشکسالی میباشد. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی منحنی ROC با سطح زیر منحنی بالای 9/0 برای این مدل نشان دهنده دقت بالای این مدل در ارائه نتایج است.
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
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