نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه مهندسی محیط زیست و پایش آلایند ه ها، پژوهشکده محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار، تهران، ایران.
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه ریاضی مالی، دانشکده آمار، ریاضی و رایانه، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار دانشکده علوم کاربردی، دانشگاه پلی تکنیک سلیمانیه، حلبچه، عراق
چکیده
کشورهای ایران و افغانستان در طول تاریخ با خطرهای اقلیمی مواجه بوده‌اند که منجر به خسارت‌های جانی، محیط‌زیستی و اقتصادی گسترده‌ای شده است. در این پژوهش شرایط بلند مدت اقلیمی گذشته دو کشور ایران و افغانستان در مقیاس کلان ملی و از منظر پارامترهای اقلیمی و مخاطرات طبیعی مقایسه گردید و بر مبنای گزارش ششم هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم تصویرسازی شرایط محتمل دوره آتی تحت سناریوهای مختلف برای پارامترهای دما و بارندگی ارائه گردید تا شباهت اقلیمی دو کشور از منظر شاخصهای مذکور تبیین گردد و در نهایت با بهره گیری از روش تحقیق کیفی دلیل توجه به حفاظت و احیا تالاب بمنظور راهکار مشترک دو کشور در مواجهه با پدیده تغییر اقلیم تبیین گردید. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین میانگین دما در هر دو کشور به سال‌های اخیر تعلق دارد و بیشترین تغییر در توزیع میانگین دما در 80 سال اخیر، متعلق به دوره 1991-2020 است. دهه اخیر ، گرم‌ترین دهه بوده است. بیشترین حوادث رخ‌داده و تعداد افراد تحت تاثیر در 40 سال اخیر در هر دو کشور بررسی می‌شود. حفظ و احیا تالاب یک استراتژی سه گانه سازگار با تغییر اقلیم است و در شرایطی که هر دو کشور متاثر از تغییر اقلیم هستند، تمرکز جدی بر حفظ و احیای تالاب هامون و همچنین نقش اشخاص ثالث در عرصه بین‌المللی در زمینه تالاب یا تغییر اقلیم یا هر دو، از راهکارهای مهم برای حل مناقشه بین دو کشور است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
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Khalaj Amirhosseini, Y. & Najafi, A. (2011). An overview of the hiory of drafting agreements on the Hirmand border river between Iran and Afghanistan, International Conference on Traditional Knowledge for Water Resources Management [In Persian].
Khalili, M. & Hashemi, S. (2018). Helmand title and its history, Foreign Relations, 9(4), 31-61. [In Persian]. Koocheki, A., Nasiri mahalati, M. & Jafari, L. (2015). Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions, Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research, 13(4), 651-664. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.22067/gsc. v13i4.51156
Lolu, A. J., Ahluwalia, A. S., Sidhu, M. C., Reshi, Z. A. & Mandotra, S. K. (2020). Carbon sequestration and storage by wetlands: Implications in the climate change scenario, Restoration of wetland ecosyem: \\A trajectory towards a sustainable environment. DOI:10.1007/978-981-13-7665-8_4
Mansouri Daneshvar, M. R., Ebrahimi, M. & Nejadsoleymani, H. (2019). An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and atiics, Environmental Syems Research, 8(1), 1-10. DOI: 10.1186/s40068-019-0135-3
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Zamani Nuri, A., Farzaneh, M. R., Fakhri, M., Dokoohaki, H., Eslamian, S. & Khordadi, M. J. (2013). Assessment of future climate classification on Urmia Lake basin under effect of climate
change. International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 3(2), 128-140. DOI:10.1504/IJHST.2013.057625
Zolfaghari, F. & Khosravi, M. (2021). Evaluation of the causes of drought in Hamoun International Wetland using precipitation, du and dryness indicators, Journal of Wetland Ecobiology, 13(49), 73-86. [In Persian].
Akbari, M. & Sayad, V. (2021). Analysis of climate change udies in Iran, Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 53(1), 37-74. [In Persian]. DOI:10.22059/ jphgr.2021.301111.1007528
Amiri, M. J. & Eslamian, S. S. (2010). Investigationof climate change in Iran, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3(4), 208-216. DOI:10.3923/jest.2010.208.216
AON. (2018). Climate Change Challenges: Climate change scenarios and their impact on funding risk and asset allocation. AON.Auralian Government. (2016). Wetlands and water quality. Australian Government Department of Environment. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (a). (2022). Afghanian. Retrieved from Climate Change Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/afghanistan
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (b). (2022). Iran, Islamic Rep. Retrieved from Climate Change Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/iran-islamic-rep
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (c). (2022). What ihe rationale behind Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP)? Retrieved from Climate Change Knowledge Portal:https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org
Crippa, M., Oreggioni, G., Guizzardi, D., Muntean,M., Schaaf, E., Lo Vullo, E., ... & Vignati, E.(2019). Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries. Publication Office of the European
Union: Luxemburg. DOI: 10.2760/687800,JRC117610.
Cross, N. R. (2019). Overlapping vulnerabilities:the impacts of climate change on humanitarian needs. Oslo: Norwegian Red Cross. Davis, D. (2001). Functions and Values of Wetlands. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Delghandi, M., Joorablou, S. & Ganji Nowroozi, Z. (2023). The impact of climate change on severity,duration and magnitude of drought using SPI and RDI in Semnan region, Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 1(1), 1-18. [In Persian].DOI:10.22077/jdcr.2023.5909.1004.
Enayatmehri, H. & Abassi Ashlaghi, M. (2022).Investigating the Impact of Helmand Hydropolitics on Political and Security Relations between Iran and Afghanistan 2018-2002, Political Sociology of Iran, 4(4), [In Persian]. DOI:10.30510/ psi.2022.341813.3451
Faizee, M. (2022). The emerging dynamics for conflict and cooperation between iran and the Taliban over the Helmand River. Retrieved from WPS:https://waterpeacesecurity.org/info/blog-09-09-2022
Fakhri, M., Farzaneh, M. R., Eslamian, S., & Hosseinipour, E. Z. (2011). Uncertainty analysis of downscaled precipitation using LARS-WG atistical model in Shahrekord ation, Iran, In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Suainability (pp.4572-4578). DOI:10.1061/41173(414)476
Fakhri, M., Farzaneh, M. R., Eslamian, S., & Khordadi, M. J. (2012). Confidence interval assessment to eimate dry and wet spells under climate change in Shahrekord ation, Iran. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000688
Farsha Saeed, P. & Khodarahmi, E. (2016). Investigating how to resolve the dispute caused by the Sian title in the Hirmand river based on the treaty of 1973. 3rd International Conference on Modern Research in Management, Economics & Humanities.[In Persian].
Farzaneh, M. & Banimoafaarab, F. (a) (2023). Analysis of climate change adaptation laws in developed countries. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, 1(1), 49-70. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.22077/jdcr.2023.6024.1009
Farzaneh, M. & Banimoafaarab, F. (b) (2023). Analysis of climate change adaptation laws in developing countries, Climate Change Research, 4(13), 35-54. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.30488/ccr.2023.394431.1128
Farzaneh, M. R., Eslamian, S. & Mirnezami, S. J. E. (2014). Climate change: Uncertainty, impact, and adaptation, In Handbook of engineering hydrology (pp. 143-162). CRC Press.
Ghiami-Shamami, F., Sabziparvar, A. A. & Shinoda, S. (2019). Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coaal and inland regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136, 875-897. DOI:10.1007/s00704-018-2523-4
Hadi, F., Khashei Siuki, A., Shahidi, A. & Farzaneh, M. R. (2016). Examination the Effect of Climate Change on Potential Evapotranspiration in Different Climates, Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 10(2), 230-240. DOI:10.22059/ijswr. 2019.285571.668266
IPCC (a). (2021). Annex VII: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglevedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256. DOI:10.1017/9781009157896.022
IPCC (b). (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. DOI: 10.1017/9781009325844.
Jahanshahi, R., Mali, S. & Hamidianpour, M. (2022). Forecaing the flooding in the site of the Zabol garansmission line, in the Hamoun Wetland, using climate change and hydrological models, Hydrogeology, 6(2), 1-12. [In Persian]. DOI:10.22034/hydro. 2022.12559
Januta, A. (2021). Explainer: The U.N. climate report’s five futures - decoded. Retrieved from Reuters:https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/un-climate-reports-five-futures-decoded-2021-08-09/
Karami, R., Rezaei, H., Salmanmahiy, A. & Ghorbani, K. (2022). Conceptual model of participatory management of Hamoun International Wetlands based on grounded Theory, Environmental Sciences, 20(2), 41-60. [In Persian]. DOI:10.52547/envs.2021.1009
Khalaj Amirhosseini, Y. & Najafi, A. (2011). An overview of the hiory of drafting agreements on the Hirmand border river between Iran and Afghanistan, International Conference on Traditional Knowledge for Water Resources Management [In Persian].
Khalili, M. & Hashemi, S. (2018). Helmand title and its history, Foreign Relations, 9(4), 31-61. [In Persian]. Koocheki, A., Nasiri mahalati, M. & Jafari, L. (2015). Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions, Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research, 13(4), 651-664. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.22067/gsc. v13i4.51156
Lolu, A. J., Ahluwalia, A. S., Sidhu, M. C., Reshi, Z. A. & Mandotra, S. K. (2020). Carbon sequestration and storage by wetlands: Implications in the climate change scenario, Restoration of wetland ecosyem: \\A trajectory towards a sustainable environment. DOI:10.1007/978-981-13-7665-8_4
Mansouri Daneshvar, M. R., Ebrahimi, M. & Nejadsoleymani, H. (2019). An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and atiics, Environmental Syems Research, 8(1), 1-10. DOI: 10.1186/s40068-019-0135-3
Moosazadeh, R. & Abbaszadeh, M. (2016). Legal Aspects of Exploitation of Hirmand Border River by Iran and Afghanian, Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal, 22(93), 159-183. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.22054/qjpl.2019.37210.1987
Najafi, A. & Vatanfada, J. (2013). Transboundary water management improvements, the way forward in the middle ea; case udy: transboundary water management of Iran and neighbors, Geopolitics Quarterly.
NEPA & UNEP. (2015). Climate Change and Governance in Afghanistan, Kabul: National Environmental Protection Agency and United Nations Environment Programme.
Nuri, A. Z., Farzaneh, M. and Espanayi, K. (2014). Assessment of climatic parameters uncertainty under effect of different downscaling techniques. International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences, 8(9), 838-225.
Ramsar. (2011). Wetland ecosystem services Factsheet 6 - Reservoirs of biodiversity. Ramsar.
Rose, S. (2014). Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. FAO, Forery Department.
Rosvold, E. L., Funnemark, A., Grand, A. O., Tarif, K. and Smith, E. (2021). Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanian. Nupi & Sipri.
Sayed, N. & Sadat, S. H. (2022). Climate change compounds longanding displacement in Afghanistan. Migration Policy Initute.
Shadkam, S., Ludwig, F., van Oel, P., Kirmit, Ç. and Kabat, P. (2016). Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran’s Urmia Lake, Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42(5), 942-952. DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2016.07.033.
Shokri, U. (2023). The Iran-Afghanistan Water Dispute:Implications, Challenges, and Potential Resolutions. Retrieved from EPC: https://epc.ae/en/details/brief/the-iran-afghanian-water-dispute-implications-challenges-and-potential-resolutions
Solaymani, M., Athari, S. A. and Miri, G. R. (2020). Field study of the impact of Afghanistan’s water policies on the Sian region. Research Political Geography Quarterly, 5(3), 89-109. [In Persian]. DOI: 10.22067/pg. v5i3.2012-1004
UN Water. (2022). Transboundary Waters. Retrieved from UN Water: https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/transboundary-waters.
UNFCCC. (2015). Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC. https://www.un-.org/en/climatechange/what-isclimate-change.
United Nations (a). (2022). What Is Climate Change?Retrieved from United Nations: https://www.un-.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change
United Nations (b). (2023). Transboundary Water Management Cooperation Crucial for Sustainable Development, Peace, Security, Speakers Stress at Conference’s Fourth Interactive Dialogue. Retrieved from United Nations: https://press.un.org/en/2023/envdev2056.doc.htm
Vaghefi, S. A., Keykhai, M., Jahanbakhshi, F., Sheikholeslami, J., Ahmadi, A., Yang, H. & Abbaspour, K. C. (2019). The future of extreme climate in Iran. Scientific reports, 9(1), 1464. DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-38071-8
Van Niekerk, D. (2011). Introduction to disaster risk reduction. USAID.
Van Valkengoed, A. M. & eg, L. (2019). Climate change adaptation by individuals and households:A psychological perspective.
WBG and ADB (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile: Afghanistan (2021): The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank
WFP, UNEP, & NEPA. (2016). Climate Change in Afghanistan: What does it mean for rural livelihoods and food security? WFP, UNEP and NEPA.
WWD (a). (2016). Wetlands: Providing more than a billion livelihoods. WWD.
WWD (b). (2020). Wetland Biodiversity Why it matters. WWD.
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