نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی آبخیزداری (حفاظت آب و خاک)، گروه آموزشی مهندسی طبیعت،دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه زمین شناسی، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد خرم آباد، خرم آباد، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آبخیزداری ، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، مازندران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از چالشهای اصلی در پایش خشکسالی، تعیین شاخصی است که بر اساس هدف پایش، از قابلیت اطمینان بالایی برخوردار باشد. بررسی و پایش خشکسالی مهمترین ابزار مدیریت خشکسالی محسوب می‌شود که می‌توان با استفاده از روش‌هایی، شروع و پایان، محدوده مکانی و شدت اثر آن را مشخص کرد و در صورت وجود برنامه‌های مقابله با خشکسالی، زمان تشکیل کارگروه بررسی و مقابله را معین کرد. دراین پژوهش، به بررسی خشکسالی هواشناسی با استفاده از شاخص‌های خشکسالی ZSI،MCZI ،CZI ،PN ، DI وSPI در دشت الشتر پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، مقادیر بارش روزانه سه ایستگاه الشتر، کاکارضا و سراب‌صید‌علی در بازه زمانی 2001-2021 گردآوری شد. پس از بررسی روند بارش سالانه در هر ایستگاه، تداوم و بیشینه خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص‌های خشکسالی هواشناسی تعیین شد. برای بررسی عملکرد این شاخص‌ها و انتخاب تطبیق‌پذیرترین شاخص برای منطقه از فرضیه کمینه استفاده شد. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، شاخص CZI با برآورد یک مورد صحیح از چهار مورد نسبت به بقیه شاخص‌ها عملکرد مطلوب‌تری داشت. در ادامه، به بررسی همبستگی اسپیرمن بین پارامتر بارش و شاخص‌های خشکسالی پرداخته شد، که نتایج نشان می‌دهد همبستگی مطلوبی بین تمامی شاخص‌ها در تمامی ایستگاه‌ها برقرار است و تنها شاخص MCZI عملکرد ضعیفی داشت. درنهایت با توجه به مجموع امتیازات‌، شاخص CZI که توانسته 21 امتیاز از مجموع آزمون‌ها را کسب کند، به عنوان شاخص برتر منطقه انتخاب شده است. شاخص‌‌های SPI و ZSI نیز نتایج مطلوب و دقیقی را در این منطقه به دست آورده اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

Azarakhshi, M. and Farzadmehr, J. (2022). Assessment the relation of meteorological and hydrological drought in Khorasan Razavi province, Journal of Range and Watershed Management, 74(4), 689-702. [In Persian].
Delfardi, S. and Sidi, M. (2015). Evaluation of different methods of choosing the appropriate drought index using data from Jiroft and Kohnuj stations, Newar, 40(94-95(, 59-68. pp. doi:10.30467/nivar.2016.42660. [In Persian].
Edwards, D. C. and McKee, T.B. (1997). Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. May 1997. https://mountainscholar.org/items/842b69e8-a465-4aeb-b7ec-021703baa6af. http://hdl.handle.net/10217/170176
Ensafi Moghadam, T. (2007). Evaluating several climate drought indicators and determining the most suitable indicator in the Salt Lake basin, Quarterly Scientific Research Journal of Pasture and Desert Research in Iran, 14(2), 271-288. [In Persian].
Gazori, H.M., Mousavi, S. F. and Hosseini, K.h. (2022). Investigating different drought indices to find the most applicable index (case study: Damghan city), Iranian Water Research Journal, 16(2), 45-33. [In Persian].
Gibbs, W. J. and Maher, J. V. (1967). Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.
Gumus, V., Dinsever, L.D. and Avsaroglu, Y. (2023). Analysis of drought characteristics and trends during 1965–2020 in the Tigris River basin, Turkey, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151(3-4), 1871–1887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04363-x
Hadiani, M.A. (2022). Hydrological drought severity classification with SMMD index 30 (case study of rivers with glacial snow flow regime in Mazandaran province), Renewable Natural Resources Research Journal, 12 (2), 36-47. [In Persian].
Haque Mondol, M. A., Zhu, X., Dunkerley, D. and Henley, B. (2021). Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI), Agricultural Water Management, 255, 107-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001
Kariminazar, M., Moghadamnia, A.R. and Mosaedi, A. (2010). Investigating climatic factors affecting the occurrence of drought (case study: Zabul), Journal of water and soil protection research, 17(1), 145-158. [In Persian].
Keshavarz, M., Vazife dost, M., Fatahi, A. and Bahayar, M. (2013). The distribution pattern of the direction and severity of drought changes in Iran with the help of Palmer's drought severity distribution index, Applied research of science geography, 12(27), 11-97. [In Persian].
Khalili, A. and Bazre afshan, J. (2003). Evaluating the efficiency of several meteorological drought indices in different climatic samples of Iran, Newar, 28 (48-49), 93-79. [In Persian].
Mashhadi Heydar, S., Muntsari, M. & Hijabi, S. (2023). The propagation time of meteorological droughts to hydrological and hydrogeological droughts in the Nazlochai sub-basin, New researches in sustainable water engineering, 1(2), 127-117. [In Persian].
Mckee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. and Kleist, J. (1993). Drought monitoring with multiple timescales. 179- 184. Preprints, Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California.
Pazhanivelan, S., Geethalakshmi, V., Samykannu, V., Kumaraperumal, R., Kancheti, M., Kaliaperumal, R., Raju, M. and Yadav, M.K. (2023). Evaluation of SPI and Rainfall Departure Based on Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products for Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Tamil Nadu, Water, 15(7), 1435. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071435
Seidi, M. and Delfardi, S. (2016). Evaluating different methods of choosing the appropriate drought index using Data from Jiroft and Kohnuj satellite stations, Scientific and promotional magazine of Newar, 40(94-95), 59-68. [In Persian].
Steinmann, A. (2003). Drought indicators and triggers: A stochastic approach to evaluation, Journal of the American WaterResources Association, 39(5), 1217-1233.
Valipour, L., Naserin, A. and Jalili, S. (2022). Investigating the relationship between hydrological drought and electrical conductivity of the river in the downstream stations of the Karkheh River, Journal of Ecohydrology, 9(4), 815-831. [In Persian].
Werike, W. J., Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N.B., Hosking, R. M. and Wallis, J. R. (1994). The national drought atlas, Advancing Earth and Space Sciences, 8(75), 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1029/94EO00706
Wilhite, D.A. and Glantz, M.H. (1985). Understanding: The drought phenomenon The role of definitions, Water International, 3(10),111–20
Azarakhshi, M. and Farzadmehr, J. (2022). Assessment the relation of meteorological and hydrological drought in Khorasan Razavi province, Journal of Range and Watershed Management, 74(4), 689-702. [In Persian].
Delfardi, S. and Sidi, M. (2015). Evaluation of different methods of choosing the appropriate drought index using data from Jiroft and Kohnuj stations, Newar, 40(94-95(, 59-68. pp. doi:10.30467/nivar.2016.42660. [In Persian].
Edwards, D. C. and McKee, T.B. (1997). Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. May 1997. https://mountainscholar.org/items/842b69e8-a465-4aeb-b7ec-021703baa6af. http://hdl.handle.net/10217/170176
Ensafi Moghadam, T. (2007). Evaluating several climate drought indicators and determining the most suitable indicator in the Salt Lake basin, Quarterly Scientific Research Journal of Pasture and Desert Research in Iran, 14(2), 271-288. [In Persian].
Gazori, H.M., Mousavi, S. F. and Hosseini, K.h. (2022). Investigating different drought indices to find the most applicable index (case study: Damghan city), Iranian Water Research Journal, 16(2), 45-33. [In Persian].
Gibbs, W. J. and Maher, J. V. (1967). Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.
Gumus, V., Dinsever, L.D. and Avsaroglu, Y. (2023). Analysis of drought characteristics and trends during 1965–2020 in the Tigris River basin, Turkey, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151(3-4), 1871–1887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04363-x
Hadiani, M.A. (2022). Hydrological drought severity classification with SMMD index 30 (case study of rivers with glacial snow flow regime in Mazandaran province), Renewable Natural Resources Research Journal, 12 (2), 36-47. [In Persian].
Haque Mondol, M. A., Zhu, X., Dunkerley, D. and Henley, B. (2021). Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI), Agricultural Water Management, 255, 107-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001
Kariminazar, M., Moghadamnia, A.R. and Mosaedi, A. (2010). Investigating climatic factors affecting the occurrence of drought (case study: Zabul), Journal of water and soil protection research, 17(1), 145-158. [In Persian].
Keshavarz, M., Vazife dost, M., Fatahi, A. and Bahayar, M. (2013). The distribution pattern of the direction and severity of drought changes in Iran with the help of Palmer's drought severity distribution index, Applied research of science geography, 12(27), 11-97. [In Persian].
Khalili, A. and Bazre afshan, J. (2003). Evaluating the efficiency of several meteorological drought indices in different climatic samples of Iran, Newar, 28 (48-49), 93-79. [In Persian].
Mashhadi Heydar, S., Muntsari, M. & Hijabi, S. (2023). The propagation time of meteorological droughts to hydrological and hydrogeological droughts in the Nazlochai sub-basin, New researches in sustainable water engineering, 1(2), 127-117. [In Persian].
Mckee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. and Kleist, J. (1993). Drought monitoring with multiple timescales. 179- 184. Preprints, Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California.
Pazhanivelan, S., Geethalakshmi, V., Samykannu, V., Kumaraperumal, R., Kancheti, M., Kaliaperumal, R., Raju, M. and Yadav, M.K. (2023). Evaluation of SPI and Rainfall Departure Based on Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products for Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Tamil Nadu, Water, 15(7), 1435. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071435
Seidi, M. and Delfardi, S. (2016). Evaluating different methods of choosing the appropriate drought index using Data from Jiroft and Kohnuj satellite stations, Scientific and promotional magazine of Newar, 40(94-95), 59-68. [In Persian].
Steinmann, A. (2003). Drought indicators and triggers: A stochastic approach to evaluation, Journal of the American WaterResources Association, 39(5), 1217-1233.
Valipour, L., Naserin, A. and Jalili, S. (2022). Investigating the relationship between hydrological drought and electrical conductivity of the river in the downstream stations of the Karkheh River, Journal of Ecohydrology, 9(4), 815-831. [In Persian].
Werike, W. J., Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N.B., Hosking, R. M. and Wallis, J. R. (1994). The national drought atlas, Advancing Earth and Space Sciences, 8(75), 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1029/94EO00706
Wilhite, D.A. and Glantz, M.H. (1985). Understanding: The drought phenomenon The role of definitions, Water International, 3(10),111–20