University of Birjand-Research Group of Drought and Climate Change Journal of Drought and Climate change Research 3092-6076 Articles in Press 2025 12 06 A New Approach to Flood Risk Assessment: Integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Sensitivity Analysis in the World Heritage Sites of Shushtar Historical City A New Approach to Flood Risk Assessment: Integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Sensitivity Analysis in the World Heritage Sites of Shushtar Historical City 3804 10.22077/jdcr.2025.10477.1189 FA Saeid Amanpour Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz 0000-0001-9771-5632 Mahmud Abiyat Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz 0000-0003-2060-0284 Journal Article 2025 11 15 Flooding, as a severe hydrological consequence of climate change, is a recurrent and destructive threat to UNESCO World Heritage sites such as the historical city of Shushtar. Climate change and urban development have intensified the risk of recurrent floods in this region. The study’s objective is to provide a risk assessment framework to enhance resilience and support adaptation strategies against these climate hazards.<br /> <br /> In this research, a framework based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), utilizing 15 independent indicators, was integrated within a GIS environment to identify Flood Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk Zones. Results indicate that more than 32% of the region’s area is at a high or very high-risk level. The model’s accuracy and reliability were confirmed with an accuracy exceeding 90%. Sensitivity analyses further highlight the critical role of the indicators. The validity of this model provides valuable insights for decision-makers to strengthen sustainable climate risk management strategies and protect cultural heritage against the impacts of climate change. Flooding, as a severe hydrological consequence of climate change, is a recurrent and destructive threat to UNESCO World Heritage sites such as the historical city of Shushtar. Climate change and urban development have intensified the risk of recurrent floods in this region. The study’s objective is to provide a risk assessment framework to enhance resilience and support adaptation strategies against these climate hazards.<br /> <br /> In this research, a framework based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), utilizing 15 independent indicators, was integrated within a GIS environment to identify Flood Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk Zones. Results indicate that more than 32% of the region’s area is at a high or very high-risk level. The model’s accuracy and reliability were confirmed with an accuracy exceeding 90%. Sensitivity analyses further highlight the critical role of the indicators. The validity of this model provides valuable insights for decision-makers to strengthen sustainable climate risk management strategies and protect cultural heritage against the impacts of climate change.