University of Birjand-Research Group of Drought and Climate Change Journal of Drought and Climate change Research 3092-6076 Articles in Press 2025 10 29 Simulating rice yield (transplanted and direct-seeded) under climate change conditions using the CERES-Rice model Simulating rice yield (transplanted and direct-seeded) under climate change conditions using the CERES-Rice model 3733 10.22077/jdcr.2025.10156.1175 FA Parvin Zolfaghary Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran 0000-0002-1194-7502 Aboutaleb Hezarjaribi Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran 0009-0002-8432-3554 Mohammad Esmaeil Asadi Research Assistant Professor and Master of Science in Technical and Engineering Research Department, Technical and Engineering Department, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Gorgan, Iran, 0000-0002-3729-0502 Ebrahim Amiri Department of Water Engineering, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran, 0000-0002-5057-6759 Journal Article 2025 09 27 Sustainable crop production requires forward-looking strategies and thorough analysis of future conditions. Rice, as a staple cereal, plays a critical role in global caloric supply. However, its high water demand, coupled with diminishing water resources, presents a significant challenge. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation, both transplanted and direct-seeded methods, in SarkhonKolah, Gorgan County, during the period 2031–2090, compared to the baseline period of 1990–2020, under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585).<br /> Meteorological data analysis indicates that, under the most adverse conditions, minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 2 to 5°C. Additionally, trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration show an upward trajectory relative to the baseline. Crop growth simulations were conducted using the CERES-Rice model for both cultivation methods. Results revealed that grain yield generally increased compared to the baseline. Under the SSP585 scenario, the lowest yield increases for direct-seeded systems were observed with flood irrigation (6%), sprinkler irrigation (14%), and drip irrigation (7%). Yield reduction in direct-seeded systems with modern irrigation was less pronounced than in transplanted systems with flood irrigation, indicating superior water-use efficiency.<br /> The findings also highlight that elevated temperatures induce spikelet sterility, resulting in grain abortion. Consequently, strategic interventions such as promoting heat-tolerant cultivars, expanding direct-seeded systems with modern irrigation technologies, educating farmers on climate change impacts, and investing in climate monitoring and modeling infrastructure are essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of rice production. Sustainable crop production requires forward-looking strategies and thorough analysis of future conditions. Rice, as a staple cereal, plays a critical role in global caloric supply. However, its high water demand, coupled with diminishing water resources, presents a significant challenge. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation, both transplanted and direct-seeded methods, in SarkhonKolah, Gorgan County, during the period 2031–2090, compared to the baseline period of 1990–2020, under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585).<br /> Meteorological data analysis indicates that, under the most adverse conditions, minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 2 to 5°C. Additionally, trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration show an upward trajectory relative to the baseline. Crop growth simulations were conducted using the CERES-Rice model for both cultivation methods. Results revealed that grain yield generally increased compared to the baseline. Under the SSP585 scenario, the lowest yield increases for direct-seeded systems were observed with flood irrigation (6%), sprinkler irrigation (14%), and drip irrigation (7%). Yield reduction in direct-seeded systems with modern irrigation was less pronounced than in transplanted systems with flood irrigation, indicating superior water-use efficiency.<br /> The findings also highlight that elevated temperatures induce spikelet sterility, resulting in grain abortion. Consequently, strategic interventions such as promoting heat-tolerant cultivars, expanding direct-seeded systems with modern irrigation technologies, educating farmers on climate change impacts, and investing in climate monitoring and modeling infrastructure are essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of rice production.