University of Birjand-Research Group of Drought and Climate Change Journal of Drought and Climate change Research 3092-6076 4 1 2026 05 22 Assessment of the Intensity and Duration of Meteorological Drought in South Khorasan Province in the Mid-Term Future Horizon Assessment of the Intensity and Duration of Meteorological Drought in South Khorasan Province in the Mid-Term Future Horizon 181 202 3728 10.22077/jdcr.2025.10060.1169 FA Amir Khayat PhD Student in Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Science and Engineering, University of Birjand, Iran. 0009-0003-3450-8371 Mahdi Amirabadizadeh Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, and Member of the Drought and Climate Change Research Group, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran. 0000-0002-8626-4036 Zahra Akhondi Agricultural Jihad Organization of South Khorasan Province 0009-0003-1368-7809 Journal Article 2025 09 09 Drought is a recurring natural climatic phenomenon that typically occurs in all parts of the world. This study was conducted to investigate the intensity and duration of drought in the two counties of Ferdows and Tabas in South Khorasan Province. In this study, daily precipitation time series data for the selected stations were collected over a 25-year statistical period (1990–2014), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was analyzed for the two studied stations using two GCM models, IPSL and MPI, from CMIP6. The SSP2-4.5 scenario was used to estimate SPI for the period 2030–2059, and the BCSD downscaling method was applied to predict meteorological data. The results indicate that the overall SPI trend for both models show significant fluctuations between positive and negative values, posing challenges for water resource management in the two counties. However, the IPSL model predicts drought with greater intensity, highlighting the need to develop water management plans based on various climate scenarios for the studied counties. According to the study’s findings, an increase in the average intensity and duration of drought in the future period compared to the baseline indicates an intensification of drought. Nevertheless, the number of normal periods in both the baseline and future periods was higher than other periods at the stations studied. Drought is a recurring natural climatic phenomenon that typically occurs in all parts of the world. This study was conducted to investigate the intensity and duration of drought in the two counties of Ferdows and Tabas in South Khorasan Province. In this study, daily precipitation time series data for the selected stations were collected over a 25-year statistical period (1990–2014), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was analyzed for the two studied stations using two GCM models, IPSL and MPI, from CMIP6. The SSP2-4.5 scenario was used to estimate SPI for the period 2030–2059, and the BCSD downscaling method was applied to predict meteorological data. The results indicate that the overall SPI trend for both models show significant fluctuations between positive and negative values, posing challenges for water resource management in the two counties. However, the IPSL model predicts drought with greater intensity, highlighting the need to develop water management plans based on various climate scenarios for the studied counties. According to the study’s findings, an increase in the average intensity and duration of drought in the future period compared to the baseline indicates an intensification of drought. Nevertheless, the number of normal periods in both the baseline and future periods was higher than other periods at the stations studied. https://jdcr.birjand.ac.ir/article_3728_460b491b917d4185ed1f5be97229721a.pdf